2019 Atlantic Hurricane Forecasts from the Global-Nested Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System: Composite Statistics and Key Events

Abstract NOAA’s Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) is an evolving FV3-based hurricane modeling system that expected to replace the operational models at National Weather Service. Supported by Improvement Program (HFIP), global-nested regional versions of HAFS were run in real time 2019 create first baseline for advancement. In this study, forecasts from configuration (HAFS-globalnest) are evaluated compared with other experimental models. The HAFS-globalnest covered period July through October during season. Tropical cyclone (TC) track, intensity, structure forecast verifications examined. showed track skill superior several comparable intensity skill, although predicting rapid intensification was slightly inferior model skill. correctly predicted Dorian would slow turn north Bahamas also structural features TCs such as a sting jet Humberto extratropical transition. case where had better than version (HAFS-SAR) due representation large-scale flow. These examples others examined comparisons airborne tail Doppler radar NOAA WP-3D provide more detailed evaluation TC prediction. results real-time experiment motivate future improvements, highlight promise improved